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Predicting Progression of Type 2 Diabetes using Primary Care Data with the Help of Machine Learning Passed

Thursday May 25, 2023 13:15 - 13:30 G2

Lecturer: Berk Ozturk

Track: MIE: Special Topic: Caring is Sharing - exploiting value in data for health and innovation

Type 2 diabetes is a life-long health condition, and as it progresses, a range of comorbidities can develop. The prevalence of diabetes has increased gradually, and it is expected that 642 million adults will be living with diabetes by 2040. Early and proper interventions for managing diabetes-related comorbidities are important. In this study, we propose a Machine Learning (ML) model for predicting the risk of developing hypertension for patients who already have Type 2 diabetes. We used the Connected Bradford dataset, consisting of 1.4 million patients, as our main dataset for data analysis and model building. As a result of data analysis, we found that hypertension is the most frequent observation among patients having Type 2 diabetes. Since hypertension is very important to predict clinically poor outcomes such as risk of heart, brain, kidney, and other diseases, it is crucial to make early and accurate predictions of the risk of having hypertension for Type 2 diabetic patients. We used Naïve Bayes (NB), Neural Network (NN), Random Forest (RF), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) to train our model. Then we ensembled these models to see the potential performance improvement. The ensemble method gave the best classification performance values of accuracy and kappa values of 0.9525 and 0.2183, respectively. We concluded that predicting the risk of developing hypertension for Type 2 diabetic patients using ML provides a promising stepping stone for preventing the Type 2 diabetes progression.

Language

English

Seminar type

On site only

Objective of lecture

Tools for implementation

Level of knowledge

Advanced

Target audience

Management/decision makers
Technicians/IT/Developers
Researchers
Students
Care professionals
Healthcare professionals

Keyword

Patient centration
Innovation/research
Test/validation
Patient safety
Ethics

Conference

MIE

Authors

Berk Ozturk, Tom Lawton, Stephen Smith, Ibrahim Habli

Lecturers

Profile image for Berk Ozturk

Berk Ozturk Lecturer

Researcher
University of York, Department of Computer Science

Hi, I am Berk from University of York, United Kingdom. I’m a fully-funded PhD student at the Department of Computer Science, and my research project area is Safe Artificial Intelligence (AI) in Healthcare.