From tyche to Wild Cards: Ancient Inspirations for Coping with the Unexpected
Abstract as pdf
Corresponding Author:
Justine Walter
Independent Germany
justine.walter@contingency-institute.com
Author(s):
In the Physics, Aristotle acknowledges the role of tyche - the Greek equivalent of contingency – in nature. His home, the Greek peninsula, was – and still is today – regularly struck by natural hazards like earthquakes, storms, or floods. Ancient records document that oftentimes they wrought substantial damage to the infrastructure and the political integrity of ancient communities. Lacking reliable forecasting systems, for the ancient Greek civilization any of these hazards was contingent, even though there existed accepted interpretation of what (or who) caused these phenomena.
Roughly 2.500 years later, futures studies and foresight call sudden, unpredictable events like these wild cards. Occurring with a low probability but a substantial impact on society (Mendonca et al., 2004), wild card events pose challenges not only to long-term planning but also to social, political, and economic stability. Just as natural hazards unexpectedly interrupted and transformed social, political, and economical life in the ancient communities, wild cards have the potential to disrupt current and futures societies and economies.
With the modern world increasingly complex and interconnected, contingent “wild card” events will increase in frequency, likelihood, and impact. More than ever, local calamities will show global effects. To mitigate these effects and enable a fast recovery, creative approaches are needed. A gaze into how the societies of the distant past successfully coped with the wild cards that hit them, may yield inspiration for that.
After a short introduction of the theoretical concepts, the presentation will focus on how the ancient societies in the Mediterranean area imagined, prepared for, and coped with disasters. Subsequently, implications for disaster risk reduction will be drawn.
Contingency: exploring an age-old concept for a new reality