But will it happen? Perception of Future Risks by Politicians in the German Bundestag (Parliament)
Abstract as pdf
Corresponding Author:
Roman Peperhove
AG Interdisciplinary Security Research, Freie Universität Berlin Germany
roman.peperhove@fu-berlin.de
Author(s):
Miriam Nagels1 , Alina Winter2 , Jasmina Schmidt3 and Lars Gerhold4
1AG Interdisciplinary Security Research, Freie Universität Berlin, Miriam.Nagels@Fu-Berlin.De, DEU
2AG Interdisciplinary Security Research, Freie Universität Berlin, Alina.Winter@Fu-Berlin.De, DEU
3AG Interdisciplinary Security Research, Freie Universität Berlin, Jasmina.Schmidt@Fu-Berlin.De, DEU
4AG Interdisciplinary Security Research, Freie Universität Berlin, Lars.Gerhold@Fu-Berlin.De, DEU
Since 2010, the German Federal Office of Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance (BBK), as the responsible national authority for emergency management in Germany, has regularly compiled risk analyses on various potential future risks and sent them to the Committee of Internal Affairs and Community at the German Bundestag, as set by law. Here, political discussions should take place as well as anticipatory decision to mitigate or prevent future risks.
However, the last ten years have shown that it did not take place as intended. Reasons and factors seem to exist which hamper a political discussion on potential future risks. A future-oriented Emergency Management rely on a timely political course-setting to prevent or mitigate a materialization of future risks.
In order to identify explicit and implicit factors which prevent future-oriented political action, 15 guided interviews with active and former members of the German Bundestag were conducted as well as two moderated focus groups with research assistants of members of the German Bundestag. Foci of the study were the perception on future risks in general and factors which affect a political agenda setting in context of future risks – exemplified by the mentioned risk analyses.
Based on a heuristic model combining the Multiple Stream Framework (MSF) (e.g. Zahariadis 2019; Herweg et al. 2015) and findings from science communication and risk communication (e.g. Fischhoff 2019, 2013; Renn 2017), a structured qualitative content analysis of the material was conducted (e.g. Mayring und Fenzl 2019; Kuckartz 2018) in accordance with defined evaluation categories.
Findings will be presented on a) Structural challenges within the political system, b) Challenges of risk communication and political perception as well as action practice, c) Modes of transmission and communication.
The assessment of a future risk as a political relevant issue is highly relevant for the concept of anticipatory government, since politicians are responsible to set the right course.
Finally, recommendations will be presented for an improved communication strategy of potential future risks to politicians.
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